Formulaic Predictions.

It is unwise to predict future events in any form of life, least of all in sport. Thus, I will brilliantly and unequivocally say that Sri Lanka will win the World T20, based on them ticking the boxes of a set check-list, formed by past winners.
2007/8 - India
2009 - Pakistan
2010 - England
2012 - West Indies
The criteria is based on having players in the following roles:

The Rock - The batsman whose job is to stay in, score runs, and allow others to build a total around him. They will usually bat in the top 3, and end up as one of the tournaments top run-scorers. India had Gautem Gambhir in 2007 (227 runs), Pakistan had Kamran Akmal (188 runs), England had Kevin Pietersen (248 runs), and West Indies had Marlon Samuels (230 runs). Sri Lanka this year have the evergreen Mahela Jayawardene. Second highest run scorer last tournament, highest the time before, and overall leading scorer in all World Cups; he has the potential to yet again take his side to the final by providing a base for the lower order hitters to flourish.

The Gun - The big name, the hitter, the player everyone pays to watch. Normally an opener, their sole role is to get the team off to a good start, or finish strongly. India went for the late order option in Yuvraj Singh (194.73 strike rate) - everyone will remember that Stuart Broad over, Pakistan had the mercurial Shahid Afridi, England had the unorthodox Craig Keiswetter, and West Indies obviously had the behemoth figure of Chris Gayle. For Sri Lanka, they are spoilt for choice at the top of the order with both Kushal Perera and TM Dilshan. Perera is the reincarnation of Sanath Jayasuriya - still only 23 he has the exuberance of youth on his side, not to mention a first class best of 336 made off only 275 balls. And Dilshan? What more can be said about him. Possibly his last tournament, he will hope to end with a bang.

Marquee Spinner + Reliable Spinner - At it's birth in 2003, Twenty20 was seen as the death sentence for slow bowlers. Jeremy Snape instantly proved them wrong, as has every single World Cup since. The combination of a wicket-taking spinner at one end, and an economic one holding up the other is the guideline for all tournament victories - with the competition being held in Bangladesh, spinners will play even more pivotal role. India had Harbajan and Yuvraj Singh (9 wickets), Pakistan had Ajmal and Afridi (23 wickets), England had Swann and Yardy (14 wickets), and W.I had Narine and Badree (13 wickets). Sri Lanka now have a great trio in the Mystery of Ajantha Mendis, the economy of Sachithra Senanayake, and the reliability of Rangana Herath. A daunting task for any middle-order opposition.

A Death Quicky - The staple of any limited-overs side, someone who can bowl yorkers at pace and halt the late-order precession of sixes. India has RP Singh, Pakistan had the unbelievably accurate and twice leading wicket-taker Umar Gul, England had the revelation of Ryan Sidebottom plus Stuart Broad, and West Indies had Ravi Rampaul. Sri Lanka have the unmatchable, unorthodox and downright unplayable Lasith Malinga. Holder of the most wickets in World Cups, his ludicrous action has become world renowned, as has his prowess in the closing overs. Mind your toes gents.

So there you go, Sri Lanka for the cup. Many will point at Pakistan's varied, experienced and quality bowling line-up, or Australia's hard-hitting top 3, but I feel they are very weak in other areas. India are the favourites with a good balance in their team, possessing much the same side that won the Champions Trophy in the summer. But Sri Lanka have already beaten them a warm up game, and before that in the Asia Cup (albeit in a 50 over game). In favourable conditions, could this be their year? Only time will tell, but it is surely worth a cheeky fiver...

Y Failure?

As England slump to yet another embarrassing T20 series loss, it's hard to avoid looking at the habitual and underlying issues which lead to their constant failure.

It's an easy out to say 'none of our players play in the IPL!'. No, but our top 3 of Lumb, Hales and Wright all recently played in the Big Bash, and did fairly well. We also won the World T20 cup four years ago despite only having one player in the squad playing in an overseas competitions (who has since been banished from the team #BringBackKP).

I believe the real problem is one of culture. Our players are told to 'express themselves' and 'play your natural game', but only if that means doing well - fail and you're out. A recent example of this is Ben Stokes. One of the brightest talents in English cricket plays one (admittedly awful) shot, and is dropped the next game so that Luke Wright could bat lower down the order, having scored 1, 0, 0 and 7* thus far in the Caribbean.

The call-up of Ian Bell further exemplifies this notion that England would rather have someone unsuitable to a position play and fail 'well', than someone who will try something different. He is obviously a wonderful player, but is he really going to score you a 25-ball 50 like a Kevin Pietersen might? Probably not, but he won't get caught at deep mid-wicket, so in he comes.

Dwayne Smith's innings in Barbados for me truly highlighted the contrast between the two sides. His knock included a six over third man from a wild slash, and another maximum from a filthy slog, dragging a ball from outside off over long-on. But his 30 off 16 balls set up the game for West Indies to cruise home, with the adage of 'they're all the same in the scorebook' ringing around the stadium. Could and will Smith get out in the first over playing like that? Sure. But is it not worth the gamble, to have even one player just throw the bat and see what happens?

Jos Butler and Eoin Morgan are constantly being praised for their innovation and ingenuity, and that is because they don't let failure put them off. Butler was bowled three time against Pakistan trying to play the flip shot, and yet he still plays it most games because he knows the benefits of it outweigh the possibility of it not working. Morgan is the same; he got out today playing the sweep, but you can put your house on him trying the shot again.

It's time England genuinely embrace 20-over cricket for the exhibition that it is, and allow players to not be afraid to fail. Because frankly, they are doing that anyway - they could at least entertain us in the process.